Market Update – Unemployment and Property Values

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Good Afternoon,

I wanted to share with you a recent presentation I did, posted on You Tube, about the impact unemployment will have on local housing values compared to the rest of California with the big question in mind…

  • Are we headed towards a Recession?
  • Are we headed into a Real Estate Correction

Feel free to view and share with colleagues, friends and clients.

This Friday, I will be providing a new video and more unemployment numbers that have been recently released and what they mean.  If you need anything, please contact me.  Thanks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFq0qqyxOb0

Have a great week and stay safe!

Best Regards,

101 Loan

Senior Mortgage Advisor

www.101Loan.com

408-377-4123 o  650-465-8957 c   408-608-1921 f

101 Loan – 14435 C Big Basin Way, Saratoga, CA 95070

101 Loan LLC – CA DRE #01205444  NMLS #326829

Products/Services/Accolades:

  1. Residential Financing for Purchases and Refinances on 1 to 4 unit properties.
  2. Reverse Mortgage Financing to include Conforming, Jumbo, HELOC Jumbo’s.
  3. Commercial & SBA Financing to include Multifamily, Office, Retail and Light Industrial.
  4. Access to over 50 banks with over 200 “Five Star” Reviews on Yelp, Google, Facebook and Linkedin.

BTW…Interested in learning more about how to Choose a Lender…

Obtaining a mortgage in today’s market for a future purchase or refinance can be a complex ordeal. A top financing professional can be critical in getting your offer excepted, or locking the lowest rates and fees with

the most favorable terms. Below are some questions you will want to ask, to make the best choice in choosing your residential or commercial lender or mortgage originator.

By asking the following questions, we can quickly help determine your goals and financing options…

  • How long will you live in the area?
  • How long will you keep the property?
  • Are you planning on doing any remodeling or adding on to the property in the future?
  • When would you like to retire?
  • Are you after cash flow or paying off the loan as quickly as possible?
  • Plus many more…

Once we have your answers, we will advise on what loan programs are best for you and what loan structure will meet your goals.  This is done at the pre-approval appointment and reviewed again once in contract or when we lock your loan.

How will you help me understand the tax benefits of home financing for the future purchase of a home?    

We will determine your approximate tax write offs, net tax benefit, and net effective payment based on your tax bracket. Then we will compare your current mortgage payment to rent and you the benefit on a monthly basis in real dollars.

What is your process in assisting me so I can get my offers accepted?

We do several things that include providing a pre-approval in ms-word, so then at moment’s notice the Realtor can modify the price of the pre-approval to match any offer if purchasing below or at the original pre-approved amount. We also call the listing agent on each offer to convey the buyers compensating factors and to differentiate the offer from everyone else’s.   Lastly, we will help coordinate short closings and “as is” offers with no contingencies.

For more info, go here, then click on Home Financing Brochure for more info.  Thanks.

Purchasing Start

Market Report and What the Unemployment Numbers are Saying…

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Please See this Weeks Market Update that will Discuss the following:

  1. Last Weeks Market Review
  2. A Look Ahead – What to Expect
  3. How Zoom has changed the way we do business!

(http://www.mmgweekly.com/w/index.html?SID=86df7dcfd896fcaf2674f757a2463eba)

Next and Most Important…please see April’s unemployment numbers that were just released at 10am this morning.  California’s unemployment rose from 2.9 in February to 5.3 in March to 15.5 in April (https://www.bls.gov/lau/).

Locally though, unemployment (still waiting for the numbers in the bay area), should be lower since we are a tech based economy with large cap companies with lots of  cash in reserves (Example: Apple has 116 Billion in Cash).  Once the bay area updates, I will send another report.

In Closing, the Basic Consensus is as follows:

If our (bay area) unemployment numbers are lower than the average of the state, coupled with low housing inventory and low rates, demand for housing should stay strong.  If unemployment numbers are high, then we could be going into a recession as predicted by analysts throughout the country.  Based on history though, we (bay area real estate) tends to outpace and outperform the rest of the country.   As mentioned, I will update you once I have more info.

BTW…for more news in the future, always go here: https://101loan.com/blog/

All the Best,

101 Loan

Senior Mortgage Advisor

www.101Loan.com

408-377-4123 o  650-465-8957 c   408-608-1921 f

101 Loan – 14435 C Big Basin Way, Saratoga, CA 95070

101 Loan LLC – CA DRE #01205444  NMLS #326829

Products/Services/Accolades:

  1. Residential Financing for Purchases and Refinances on 1 to 4 unit properties.
  2. Reverse Mortgage Financing to include Conforming, Jumbo, HELOC Jumbo’s.
  3. Commercial & SBA Financing to include Multifamily, Office, Retail and Light Industrial.
  4. Access to over 50 banks with over 200 “Five Star” Reviews on Yelp, Google, Facebook and Linkedin.

Market Update and What Should Retired Homeowners Due in a Declining Stock Market…

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As for Mortgage Rates and the Stock Market…The dust has not settled.  Analysts say this week or next may be similar to the last few weeks with volatility in the market. For now, only loans of $510k or less are low in rate. Loans above $510k are expensive, “rate wise” when looking at refi options. Purchase loans are still low in rate as banks subsidize them. In regards to market volatility for this week, please see the following at https://seekingalpha.com/article/4335928-markets-are-setting-up-for-another-move-down-technically-speaking-for-week-of-3-30minus-4-3.

In Addition…Wells Fargo has announced they will only do jumbo loans for clients with $250k deposited with them and will not be doing conforming loans or government type loans (such as FHA and VA) going forward. We are glad we have access to more than one jumbo lender and access to everything else! Being a broker in this type of market does have its perks with access to multiple lenders, many of which are portfolio lenders and lenders that sell to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, giving our clients more loan options!

In Closing…with market devaluations, many of your retired clients may be feeling the pain or fear of seeing their portfolio or monthly income from those assets go lower. As a solution, we have access to Reverse Mortgage Financing that can help them Age in Place and eliminate stress and anxiety with the changing times. For more info, please contact me.  Any questions, please contact us.

With the Federal Reserve Lowering Rates, Why Have Mortgage Rates Gone Higher?

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As you know the Federal Reserve lowered rates, specifically the Fed Fund was lowered to 0.  This means the bank lending rate has dropped, lowering rates at the street level at tad, but no-where near where they were weeks ago when rates were lower.

Rates are still up because of the following…

  1. Lenders are slammed with so much business. Their turn times are much slower now.  This has caused them all to increase their rates to handle the volume they currently have locked.  By lenders increasing rates, their incoming business slows down allowing them to catch up.  Once they catch up, they typically will lower rates again.
  2. The Corona Virus has forced employees at banks to work from home, slowing down the virus.  Working remotely unless completely set up for this, has caused a slow down of work efficiency causing work delays.
  3. See my response from a few weeks ago below on what a Fed Drop really does*
  4. Lastly, unrelated to rates, County Offices have closed and many appraisers are staying home and not taking on new business.  This will cause further back-ups for lenders and consumers.  We know this is short term (hopefully only a week or so) but this will delay “most” refinances and purchases from closing in the near term.

Update on Rates from a Few Weeks Ago…

Clients are Asking…Why Have Rates Not Gone Down Today?

As you may know the Federal Reserve lowered the Fed Fund by .5% today.  You may be wondering how this will affect interest rates you are seeing for your home mortgage.

I hope the following sheds some light on the subject:

Typically, a Fed cut has no direct effect on mortgage rates.  The Fed Fund (which they lowered) is the overnight lending rate.  Banks charge this to each other when they have a surplus of reserves (deposits) required by the Federal Reserve.  Banks have to keep a certain amount of reserves in relation to their deposits and so when they get more than what they need, they lend out the surplus to other banks that are short in reserves using the Fed Fund Rate.  So what does this mean to you the home owner?

A fed cut like today’s, lowers rates on bank products like car loans, business loans, credit card rates, home equity rates.  Mortgage loans, however are influenced by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Portfolio Lenders and of course Mortgage Backed Securities and Bonds.  In short, when the Dow or Nasdaq starts falling, investors put their money into MBS’s and Bonds causing mortgage rates to go lower.  When the stock market corrects and starts going back up, these investors quickly move their money back over to equities and mortgage rates we see, typically go up.

Now, the reason we have seen rates drop in the past week or so is due to market uncertainty.  The Corona Virus and its impacts local, national and international markets.  Example, if Apple can’t manufacture cell phones in China due to impact of the Corona Virus, their sales and revenue will significantly drop negatively.  This will affect their stock price and stock market as seen in the last week or so.  The Federal Reserve is worried that this will happen to other industries such as travel, manufacturing, tech, etc so they are being proactive in lowering the Federal Fund Rate.  Eventually this move will filter down to interest rates for home loans, but in the near term it will not as seen last year with 3 Fed Fund drops (last year) only resulting a slight reduction of mortgage rates.

Conclusion…

Rates will definitely go lower, but unfortunately it will take some time to do so based on the factors above.  When rates do drop, we will update you so you can take advantage of the rate and payment savings.  If you would like to get in ready position so you can act quickly when rates do drop, please contact us.

Best Regards,

101 Loan

Senior Mortgage Advisor

www.101Loan.com

hello@101loan.com

408-377-4123 o  650-465-8957 c   408-608-1921 f

101 Loan – 14435 C Big Basin Way, Saratoga, CA 95070

101 Loan LLC – CA DRE #01205444  NMLS #326829

PRESSURE ON RATES AND HOME VALUES…

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Rates dipped a few weeks ago however rates went up for the following reasons:

  • Lack of Real Estate Inventory for Sale (1 month or less inventory in some areas)
  • Low Unemployment (at 3.6%)
  • Lenders took to much business in.
  • Government offices are closed delaying purchases and refinances.
  • Market Volatility – Lenders don’t know how to price themselves.

See this week’s report below.  If you need anything, please contact me.

http://www.mmgweekly.com/m/index.html?SID=a2186aa7c086b46ad4e8bf81e2a3a19b

Remember, I provide 3 different types of financing:

  • Residential Financing (1 to 4 Units)
  • Commercial Financing (5+ Units, Office, Retail and Light Industrial)
  • Reverse Mortgage Financing (Conforming and Jumbo and the New Jumbo Heloc)

Are Values Really Going To Go Higher?

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Recently rates dropped, but that didn’t last long. Numerous economic reports (see report below) came out showing positive signs that the economy will “steam” forward coupled with the Federal Reserve’s statement that they have “no plans on increasing rates in 2019” means one thing in the near future…Higher Values and Higher Rates! (Rates tend to increase when the market is doing well) Read more

Consumer Confidence Soars…

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There are 99 factors affecting the current housing market, but tariffs ain’t one? Consumers seem to ignore threats of a trade war as consumer confidence soars. But what does that mean for the housing market? This issue answers that question and more, including: Read more

Where are We Headed?

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I posed the question to financial planners if the market we are now in, is similar to 1999 or 2008?

Read more