Rob’s Market Report…The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Hope the week is treating you well! 

For us in lending, it’s a world wind!  Never in 30 years have I worked so many hours per week with such concentration for so long since going Shelter In Place on March 17.  We had a short stay on SIP but that didn’t last long with SIP Chapter 2 commencing, where COVID numbers rapidly increased as the state of California and other states throughout the US lifted social distancing rules.

While COVID has impacted un-employment its done little to nothing in the near term to the Dow Jones which closed at 26,828 today and interest rates have gone lower.  Definitely the lowest I have ever seen them in 30+ years of doing lending.

If you, your friends or family haven’t refinanced and have loans below $765k, have them contact us and we will happily quote them.  Most retail banks are taking 90+ days to close a refi while were still at 45 to 50 days from start to finish.  In addition, if your clients just want an idea of what’s available we can usually respond with a rate update within 24 hours whereas retail banks based on what my clients are saying, can sometimes take, weeks for a response.

Its as simple as completing the following questionnaire and forwarding back to me to run a rate search…See below:

Please complete the following refinance questionnaire or go here to complete online https://101loan.com/refinancing-start/.  Once completed, I will research loan options out of 50 lenders and provide a rate comparison for your review based on the best available rates and loan options.  Any questions at all, please contact me.  Thanks.

1)  Provide your property/mailing address, day and evening numbers.

2)  What is the estimated value of your property and is your dwelling permitted with the city?  In addition, is this property your owner occupied or investment property?   Lastly, is the property a house, townhouse or condo?

3)  What are the balance of your 1st Mortgage-      2nd Mortgage-       3rd Mortgage-

4)  What are the rates on your 1st Mortgage-      2nd Mortgage-       3rd Mortgage-

5)  What are the payments on your 1st Mortgage-      2nd Mortgage-       3rd Mortgage-

6)  Do you want cash out?  If so how much?

7)  How long do you plan on owning the property?

8)  Does your loan have a prepayment penalty?  If so, when does it expire?

9)  When did you purchase your home and for how much?

10) What is your annual, verifiable income and what is your estimated FICO score?

11) Which loan programs are you considering?  Fixed and/or Hybrid?

In closing, if you need help with any type of financing, please contact me.  See current market report at http://www.mmgweekly.com/w/index.html?SID=86df7dcfd896fcaf2674f757a2463eba.

BTW…if you missed my last video on Home Insurance, make sure you watch this.  A client of ours out of the area was just quoted over $10,000 on a 3000 sq ft house as they let their home insurance lapse and unfortunately for them, they are in a risky area “burn wise”.  https://101loan.com/market-update-and-insurance-update-fire-season-is-upon-us/

Best Regards,

Rob McCarthy

Senior Mortgage Advisor

www.101Loan.com

408-377-4123 o  650-465-8957 c   408-608-1921 f

101 Loan – 1601 S De Anza Blvd, Suite 260, Cupertino, CA 95014

CA DRE #01165697  NMLS #121019

Products/Services/Accolades:

  1. Residential Financing for Purchases and Refinances on 1 to 4 unit properties.
  2. Reverse Mortgage Financing to include Conforming, Jumbo, HELOC Jumbo’s.
  3. Commercial & SBA Financing to include Multifamily, Office, Retail and Light Industrial.
  4. Access to over 50 banks with over 200 “Five Star” Reviews on Yelp, Google, Facebook and Linkedin.

Note: Interest rates and loan programs quoted are subject to change without notice or until locked and approved by lender.

Market Report and What the Unemployment Numbers are Saying…

Please See this Weeks Market Update that will Discuss the following:

  1. Last Weeks Market Review
  2. A Look Ahead – What to Expect
  3. How Zoom has changed the way we do business!

(http://www.mmgweekly.com/w/index.html?SID=86df7dcfd896fcaf2674f757a2463eba)

Next and Most Important…please see April’s unemployment numbers that were just released at 10am this morning.  California’s unemployment rose from 2.9 in February to 5.3 in March to 15.5 in April (https://www.bls.gov/lau/).

Locally though, unemployment (still waiting for the numbers in the bay area), should be lower since we are a tech based economy with large cap companies with lots of  cash in reserves (Example: Apple has 116 Billion in Cash).  Once the bay area updates, I will send another report.

In Closing, the Basic Consensus is as follows:

If our (bay area) unemployment numbers are lower than the average of the state, coupled with low housing inventory and low rates, demand for housing should stay strong.  If unemployment numbers are high, then we could be going into a recession as predicted by analysts throughout the country.  Based on history though, we (bay area real estate) tends to outpace and outperform the rest of the country.   As mentioned, I will update you once I have more info.

BTW…for more news in the future, always go here: https://101loan.com/blog/

All the Best,

Rob McCarthy

Senior Mortgage Advisor

www.101Loan.com

408-377-4123 o  650-465-8957 c   408-608-1921 f

101 Loan – 1601 S De Anza Blvd, Suite 260, Cupertino, CA 95014

CA DRE #01165697  NMLS #121019

Products/Services/Accolades:

  1. Residential Financing for Purchases and Refinances on 1 to 4 unit properties.
  2. Reverse Mortgage Financing to include Conforming, Jumbo, HELOC Jumbo’s.
  3. Commercial & SBA Financing to include Multifamily, Office, Retail and Light Industrial.
  4. Access to over 50 banks with over 200 “Five Star” Reviews on Yelp, Google, Facebook and Linkedin.

Cash Out Refi’s Might Go Away?

 First and Foremost…
I just read an interesting report on how lenders may eliminate cash out refinances on conforming and jumbo loans. We have seen the “add” for cash-out refinances get super expensive lately.  It appears the Federal Reserve doesn’t want borrowers pulling equity out of their homes.  They feel home values may go down due to the negative impact of Shelter in Place and Covid-19.
For more info, see quote and link below:
 
“Many lenders have eliminated or restricted cash-out refinances, financing for investment properties and some for second homes as well,” Cohn says. “Jumbo lenders have also tightened their guidelines.”
 
https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/6-things-to-know-about-refinancing-right-now/ 
 
Next…
A listing agent in the east bay recently posted a great Yelp review on the service we provided her. I just love when we can help Realtors and their clients successfully & smoothly close on purchases. 
To view the review, click here: https://www.yelp.com/biz/101-loan-mortgage-san-jose-2  (See Testimonial from Bette dtd. 4/28/2020)
If you’d like the same care, please contact me.
 
Best Regards,
Rob McCarthy
Senior Mortgage Advisor
www.101Loan.com
408-377-4123 o 650-465-8957 c 408-608-1921 f
101 Loan – 1601 S De Anza Blvd, Suite 260, Cupertino, CA 95014
CA DRE #01165697 NMLS #121019
Products/Services/Accolades:
1. Residential Financing for Purchases and Refinances on 1 to 4 unit properties.
2. Reverse Mortgage Financing to include Conforming, Jumbo, HELOC Jumbo’s.
3. Commercial & SBA Financing to include Multifamily, Office, Retail and Light Industrial.
4. Access to over 50 banks with over 200 “Five Star” Reviews on Yelp, Google, Facebook and Linkedin.

Opportunity May Be Knocking – 1st Time Buyers May Finally Have a Leg Up!

In the Bay Area, we have been in Shelter in Place for over 30 days. Unfortunately the flattening of the COVID 19 has not reduced the curve as much as officials have hoped.  Meanwhile consumers are wondering when they will be able to go back to some normalcy in life.

In terms of Real Estate… it continues to be in demand.  Predictions state that this may not be the case in the future, unless officials come up with a plan for consumers to stay healthy but still productive.  Real Estate continues to stay high in value since inventory is so low but with consumer confidence being low and because Shelter in Place is still in affect, properties may sit on the market for longer periods.

This is creating opportunities for first time home buyers.  Because of the stock market correction, 1st Time Buyers,  don’t have to compete with buyers that were using stocks to purchase a property or that had large down payments, putting 1st Time Home Buyers into competitive position.  In addition, sellers are getting antsy, wondering why their homes are not selling or when they may sell.

For more info on the above, about the Bay Area Real Estate Market and Current rates, please tune into my You Tube channel at 101 Loan or at https://youtu.be/-3DSUCsKQVg.

For more info on the above, about the Real Estate Market locally and about current interest rates, tune into my You Tube channel..  If you would like to get pre-approved, please contact us at www.101loan.com or complete the following questionnaire at https://101loan.com/purchasing-start/.

Any questions, please contact me at https://101loan.com/contact-us/.

All The Best,

Rob McCarthy

Owner and Senior Mortgage Planner

101 Loan LLC

Market Update and What Should Retired Homeowners Due in a Declining Stock Market…

As for Mortgage Rates and the Stock Market…The dust has not settled.  Analysts say this week or next may be similar to the last few weeks with volatility in the market. For now, only loans of $510k or less are low in rate. Loans above $510k are expensive, “rate wise” when looking at refi options. Purchase loans are still low in rate as banks subsidize them. In regards to market volatility for this week, please see the following at https://seekingalpha.com/article/4335928-markets-are-setting-up-for-another-move-down-technically-speaking-for-week-of-3-30minus-4-3.

In Addition…Wells Fargo has announced they will only do jumbo loans for clients with $250k deposited with them and will not be doing conforming loans or government type loans (such as FHA and VA) going forward. We are glad we have access to more than one jumbo lender and access to everything else! Being a broker in this type of market does have its perks with access to multiple lenders, many of which are portfolio lenders and lenders that sell to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, giving our clients more loan options!

In Closing…with market devaluations, many of your retired clients may be feeling the pain or fear of seeing their portfolio or monthly income from those assets go lower. As a solution, we have access to Reverse Mortgage Financing that can help them Age in Place and eliminate stress and anxiety with the changing times. For more info, please contact me.  Any questions, please contact us.

With the Federal Reserve Lowering Rates, Why Have Mortgage Rates Gone Higher?

As you know the Federal Reserve lowered rates, specifically the Fed Fund was lowered to 0.  This means the bank lending rate has dropped, lowering rates at the street level at tad, but no-where near where they were weeks ago when rates were lower.

Rates are still up because of the following…

  1. Lenders are slammed with so much business. Their turn times are much slower now.  This has caused them all to increase their rates to handle the volume they currently have locked.  By lenders increasing rates, their incoming business slows down allowing them to catch up.  Once they catch up, they typically will lower rates again.
  2. The Corona Virus has forced employees at banks to work from home, slowing down the virus.  Working remotely unless completely set up for this, has caused a slow down of work efficiency causing work delays.
  3. See my response from a few weeks ago below on what a Fed Drop really does*
  4. Lastly, unrelated to rates, County Offices have closed and many appraisers are staying home and not taking on new business.  This will cause further back-ups for lenders and consumers.  We know this is short term (hopefully only a week or so) but this will delay “most” refinances and purchases from closing in the near term.

Update on Rates from a Few Weeks Ago…

Clients are Asking…Why Have Rates Not Gone Down Today?

As you may know the Federal Reserve lowered the Fed Fund by .5% today.  You may be wondering how this will affect interest rates you are seeing for your home mortgage.

I hope the following sheds some light on the subject:

Typically, a Fed cut has no direct effect on mortgage rates.  The Fed Fund (which they lowered) is the overnight lending rate.  Banks charge this to each other when they have a surplus of reserves (deposits) required by the Federal Reserve.  Banks have to keep a certain amount of reserves in relation to their deposits and so when they get more than what they need, they lend out the surplus to other banks that are short in reserves using the Fed Fund Rate.  So what does this mean to you the home owner?

A fed cut like today’s, lowers rates on bank products like car loans, business loans, credit card rates, home equity rates.  Mortgage loans, however are influenced by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Portfolio Lenders and of course Mortgage Backed Securities and Bonds.  In short, when the Dow or Nasdaq starts falling, investors put their money into MBS’s and Bonds causing mortgage rates to go lower.  When the stock market corrects and starts going back up, these investors quickly move their money back over to equities and mortgage rates we see, typically go up.

Now, the reason we have seen rates drop in the past week or so is due to market uncertainty.  The Corona Virus and its impacts local, national and international markets.  Example, if Apple can’t manufacture cell phones in China due to impact of the Corona Virus, their sales and revenue will significantly drop negatively.  This will affect their stock price and stock market as seen in the last week or so.  The Federal Reserve is worried that this will happen to other industries such as travel, manufacturing, tech, etc so they are being proactive in lowering the Federal Fund Rate.  Eventually this move will filter down to interest rates for home loans, but in the near term it will not as seen last year with 3 Fed Fund drops (last year) only resulting a slight reduction of mortgage rates.

Conclusion…

Rates will definitely go lower, but unfortunately it will take some time to do so based on the factors above.  When rates do drop, we will update you so you can take advantage of the rate and payment savings.  If you would like to get in ready position so you can act quickly when rates do drop, please contact us.

Best Regards,

Rob McCarthy

Senior Mortgage Advisor

www.101Loan.com

rob@101loan.com

408-377-4123 o  650-465-8957 c   408-608-1921 f

101 Loan – 1601 S De Anza Blvd, Suite 260, Cupertino, CA 95014

CA DRE #01165697  NMLS #121019

PRESSURE ON RATES AND HOME VALUES…

Rates dipped a few weeks ago however rates went up for the following reasons:

  • Lack of Real Estate Inventory for Sale (1 month or less inventory in some areas)
  • Low Unemployment (at 3.6%)
  • Lenders took to much business in.
  • Government offices are closed delaying purchases and refinances.
  • Market Volatility – Lenders don’t know how to price themselves.

See this week’s report below.  If you need anything, please contact me.

http://www.mmgweekly.com/m/index.html?SID=a2186aa7c086b46ad4e8bf81e2a3a19b

Remember, I provide 3 different types of financing:

  • Residential Financing (1 to 4 Units)
  • Commercial Financing (5+ Units, Office, Retail and Light Industrial)
  • Reverse Mortgage Financing (Conforming and Jumbo and the New Jumbo Heloc)

Are Values Really Going To Go Higher?

Recently rates dropped, but that didn’t last long. Numerous economic reports (see report below) came out showing positive signs that the economy will “steam” forward coupled with the Federal Reserve’s statement that they have “no plans on increasing rates in 2019” means one thing in the near future…Higher Values and Higher Rates! (Rates tend to increase when the market is doing well) Read more

Consumer Confidence Soars…

There are 99 factors affecting the current housing market, but tariffs ain’t one? Consumers seem to ignore threats of a trade war as consumer confidence soars. But what does that mean for the housing market? This issue answers that question and more, including: Read more

Where are We Headed?

I posed the question to financial planners if the market we are now in, is similar to 1999 or 2008?

Read more