The Bay Area Housing Market in the AI Era
If you work in tech in the Bay Area, you have probably asked yourself some version of the same question this year: with my equity growing, AI companies heading toward IPOs and mortgage rates back above 7%, is now the time to buy — or to sell — and where?
The answer depends on what you are buying. The Bay Area has become two markets moving at different speeds. Single-family homes are still scarce and competitive, especially in San Francisco, Marin and on the Peninsula, and new AI wealth is adding fuel at the top end. Condos and townhomes, meanwhile, have quietly softened, giving buyers negotiating room they have not had in years. Add a 10-year Treasury that can swing a quarter point in a week, and timing matters more than ever.
This report brings together current listing counts from local agents across seven counties, the latest rate and Treasury data, and what the AI boom means for home prices — so you can see where the opportunities are and make your next move with confidence.
Here is the Market at a Glance…
| Indicator | Now | Trend |
| Homes for sale, 7 counties | ~8,770 (5,400 houses; 3,370 condos/townhomes) | Condos and townhomes are 38% of supply |
| Active listings vs. a year ago | 8,334 in Sept (Realtor.com) | −4.8% YoY: still less supply than last year |
| Single-family months of supply | 1.3 (SF) to 4.6 (Santa Cruz); 2.6 Bay Area | Seller’s market in 6 of 7 counties |
| Bay Area median single-family price | $1,272,000 (Aug) | Flat YoY; sales down 4.2% YoY |
| 30-yr fixed, national average | 7.32% (Oct 22) | Up from 6.19% a year ago |
| 101Loan 30-yr fixed jumbo | 6.75%, 0 points (6.79% APR)* | Below the conforming average |
| 10-year Treasury | ~5.13% (Oct 21) | Swung 5.04%–5.33% in one week in October |
Sources: agent and Redfin counts (see “What’s for sale right now”); Realtor.com via FRED; C.A.R., August 2026; Freddie Mac; Forbes; Axios. *Jumbo quote assumptions are listed under “Interest rates today”; rates subject to change without notice.
Key Trends…
• Condos and townhomes are the soft spot — in San Mateo, Santa Clara, the East Bay and Santa Cruz they take longer to sell and leave room to negotiate. A strong opening for first-time buyers and downsizers.
• Single-family homes remain tight, especially in San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo, where listings are 14–28% below a year ago.
• Many homes sell before they reach the MLS, particularly on the Peninsula and in Santa Clara County, so a well-connected local agent matters.
• AI is creating significant new wealth. Anthropic and OpenAI are preparing to go public, and high earners in AI are already active buyers at the top of the market (see “AI wealth and the Bay Area market”).
• Rates are the wild card. The 10-year Treasury is moving sharply day to day; each 0.25-point move changes the payment on a $1 million loan by about $165–170 a month.
What it Means…
• Buyers: focus on condos and townhomes, longer-listed homes and seller-paid rate buydowns; get pre-approved, including jumbo pricing, so you can act when rates dip.
• Sellers: well-priced single-family homes still sell quickly; price to current comps and consider buydown credits, especially for condos and townhomes.
What’s for Sale Right Now…
Current counts show about 8,770 homes for sale across the seven counties; condos and townhomes make up about 38% of that supply, and that segment is where buyers currently have the most room to negotiate.
| County | Single-family homes | Condos | Townhomes | Condo + TH total | Provided by | As of |
| San Francisco | 277 | 454 | 10 | 464 | Michelle Ye, The Agency | Oct 22, 2026 |
| Marin | 292 | 109 | 37 | 146 | Michelle Ye, The Agency | Oct 22, 2026 |
| San Mateo | 553 | 214 | 55 | 269 | Kiersten Ligeti and Patricia Karoubi, The Agency | Oct 2026 |
| Santa Clara | 1,255 | 618 | 362 | 980 | Dawn Thomas | Oct 22, 2026 |
| Alameda | 1,236 | 560 | 182 (incl. duets) | 742 | Trang Dunlap | Oct 2026 |
| Contra Costa | 1,357 | 417 | 247 | 664 | Trang Dunlap | Oct 2026 |
| Santa Cruz | 428 | 75 | 33 | 108 | Robbie Matusich | Oct 2026 |
| 7 County Total | 5,398 | — | — | 3,373 |
San Francisco, Marin and Santa Clara counts are Redfin listings by property type as of Oct. 22, excluding Redfin “early access” homes not yet on the MLS (listing-site counts can include coming-soon and some contingent homes); Marin’s single-family count matches the 290 BAREIS MLS listings reported by Imagine Marin on Oct 4. Other counts are active MLS listings provided by the local agents named. Contact details are listed under “Local market experts” below.
What the Local Experts are Seeing…
• Peninsula (San Mateo): Inventory is moving, and a lot of properties are selling before they ever hit the MLS — so the active counts understate what is actually trading. Condos and townhomes are a bit soft right now, which makes them a great opportunity for first-time buyers or owners looking to downsize.
• Santa Clara County: Redfin shows 1,255 houses, 618 condos and 362 townhouses for sale, plus 97 “early access” homes marketed before the MLS (Redfin). Dawn Thomas notes that a number of homes sell without ever appearing on the MLS. That’s why it pays to work with a seasoned, well-respected agent with long-standing relationships: buyers often gain access to properties they would never see by watching the MLS alone.
• East Bay (Alameda and Contra Costa): The two counties together have nearly 2,600 single-family homes and more than 1,400 condos and townhomes for sale, the deepest selection in the region.
• Santa Cruz County: One of the smallest markets, with only 108 condos and townhomes available.
• San Francisco: Redfin shows 277 houses, 454 condos and just 10 townhouses for sale, plus about 65 more “early access” homes marketed before they hit the MLS (Redfin). Single-family supply is extremely thin. For buyers, Michelle Ye of The Agency is our point of contact in San Francisco and Marin.
• Marin County: Redfin shows 292 houses, 109 condos and 37 townhouses for sale (Redfin). Of the 290 single-family homes on the MLS as of Oct. 4, more than half had been listed over 30 days. Well-priced homes that went into contract within two weeks sold at about 111% of list price, while homes that sat 120+ days sold at about 87% (Imagine Marin).
Inventory Trend: now vs. 6 months ago vs. 1 year ago
Active listings across the seven counties are 4.8% below a year ago; San Francisco (−28%), Marin (−20%) and San Mateo (−14%) remain the tightest, while Santa Clara is the only county with noticeably more homes for sale than last year (+20%).
| County | Sept 2026 | Mar 2026 (6 mo ago) | Sept 2025 (1 yr ago) | vs. 6 mo | vs. 1 yr |
| San Francisco | 695 | 658 | 966 | +5.6% | −28.1% |
| Marin | 458 | 374 | 573 | +22.5% | −20.1% |
| San Mateo | 710 | 654 | 827 | +8.6% | −14.1% |
| Santa Clara | 1,987 | 1,628 | 1,652 | +22.1% | +20.3% |
| Alameda | 1,915 | 1,492 | 2,059 | +28.4% | −7.0% |
| Contra Costa | 2,056 | 1,547 | 2,123 | +32.9% | −3.2% |
| Santa Cruz | 513 | 342 | 553 | +50.0% | −7.2% |
| Seven-county total | 8,334 | 6,695 | 8,753 | +24.5% | −4.8% |
Source: Realtor.com Housing Inventory Core Metrics via FRED (St. Louis Fed); active single-family and condo/townhome listings, excluding pending. September 2026 is the latest month published. These monthly averages are measured differently from the agents’ current counts above, so the totals will not match exactly.
How to read it: March is a seasonal low, so most of the rise since then is the normal spring-summer build. The year-over-year column is the cleaner signal, and it still shows less supply than last year. Demand has cooled too: Bay Area sales fell 4.2% year over year in August (C.A.R., August 2026).
2–4 unit properties: Public data series do not break out duplex-to-fourplex listings. Contact us for current 2–4 unit availability pulled directly from the MLS.
Interest Rates Today…
Rates are near their highest level in almost two years, but jumbo loans — the loan most Bay Area buyers need — are currently pricing below the national conforming average.
| Measure | Now (Oct 22, 2026) | 6 months ago (Apr 23, 2026) | 1 year ago (Oct 2025) |
| 30-yr fixed, national average (Freddie Mac) | 7.32% | 6.23% | 6.19% |
| 15-yr fixed, national average (Freddie Mac) | 6.68% | 5.58% | 5.44% |
| 101Loan 30-yr fixed jumbo | 6.75%, 0 points (6.79% APR) | — | — |
| P&I on $1,000,000 at the national 30-yr average | $6,869/mo | $6,144/mo | $6,118/mo |
| P&I on $2,250,000 jumbo loan at 101Loan 6.75% | $14,593/mo | — | — |
| P&I on $2,250,000 at the national 30-yr average | $15,456/mo | — | — |
Sources: Freddie Mac, Oct 22, 2026; Freddie Mac, Apr 23, 2026. Freddie Mac averages cover conforming loans with 20% down. Payments are principal and interest only.
101 Loan jumbo quote assumptions: 30-year fixed jumbo at 6.75% with 0 points, 6.79% APR, based on a $3,000,000 purchase price with 25% down ($750,000), a $2,250,000 loan amount, an 800 credit score and a 30-day rate lock, as of October 22, 2026. Rates subject to change without notice.
What that means for a Buyer: at the national average, the payment on a $1 million loan is about $725 a month higher than in April — roughly 10% less buying power. At today’s 6.75% jumbo rate, the gap shrinks to about $340 a month.
The 10-year Treasury: Why its Volatility Matters
Mortgage rates are priced off the 10-year Treasury, and that benchmark has been unusually volatile this fall — moving almost 0.3 percentage points in a single week.
What has Happened…
• The 10-year yield hit a 12-month high of 5.31% on Oct. 5, 2026, well above its 12-month average of 4.43% (Forbes).
• In the week of Oct. 12, it rose above 5.3% after a hot inflation report, then fell to about 5.04% — its biggest weekly decline since April 2025 (Axios).
• It was 5.24% on Oct. 9 and 5.13% on Oct. 21 (Advisor Perspectives; Forbes).
Why it is So Jumpy…
• Leveraged hedge funds now hold an estimated third of Treasuries, while foreign central banks’ share has fallen sharply; these buyers are more price-sensitive (Axios).
• Heavy government borrowing means a steady flood of new bonds to absorb.
• Inflation reports, Federal Reserve signals and stock-market swings can each move yields sharply in a day.
How it affects mortgage rates
• Mortgage rates typically run about 2 to 2.5 percentage points above the 10-year yield (7.32% vs. 5.13% today). When the 10-year moves 0.25 points, mortgage rates tend to follow.
• A 0.25-point rate move changes the payment on a $1 million loan by roughly $165–170 a month.
• When the bond market is volatile, lenders often build a cushion into pricing, so rates can rise faster than they fall.
Practical Takeaway…
Lock timing matters more than usual. Buyers in contract should talk to their lender about locking on a good day rather than waiting for a better one.
How it Affects Prices, Supply and Demand…
• Demand: higher and less predictable rates keep some buyers on the sidelines. When rates dip, even briefly, sidelined buyers rush back in.
• Supply: most owners hold mortgages well below today’s rates and are reluctant to sell, which keeps single-family inventory below last year.
• Prices: limited supply supports prices for desirable single-family homes, while condos and townhomes — where buyers are most payment-sensitive — feel the pressure first. That’s why the condo segment is the softest part of the market today.
• Outlook: Fannie Mae and the MBA forecast rates of about 6.7–6.8% through 2027 (National Mortgage News), but those forecasts were made before October’s swings. Volatility can cut both ways.
AI Wealth and the Bay Area Market
The AI boom is a real and growing source of housing demand in the Bay Area, concentrated in higher-priced single-family homes in San Francisco, the Peninsula and Silicon Valley.
• Anthropic confidentially filed for an IPO on June 1, 2026. Its last private funding round in May valued it at $965 billion (Forge). Bloomberg reported it could go public as soon as mid-November at a valuation of up to $2 trillion; the date and price are not final (Yahoo Finance).
• OpenAI also filed confidentially for an IPO in June and has not set a date. In August it completed a $7 billion employee stock sale at an $852 billion valuation, putting cash in employees’ hands before any IPO (Yahoo Finance).
• The effect on housing is already visible. San Francisco-area luxury home sales rose 39% in the first half of 2026, with many AI-linked buyers paying cash or making large down payments. Redfin estimated that employees’ potential IPO proceeds at the two companies could buy nearly a third of San Francisco’s homes (AP via NBC Bay Area).
• Google remains strong despite AI pressure on search. Alphabet’s Q2 2026 revenue rose 24% to $119.8 billion, and search revenue still grew 17% even as AI answers change how people search; Google Cloud grew 82% (The Motley Fool; Digital Applied). Alphabet reports Q3 results Oct. 28.
What to keep in mind: IPO wealth usually arrives gradually — employees typically face lockup periods of several months before they can sell shares — and stock values can fall as well as rise. Expect the biggest effect on homes above about $2 million in San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties, with less impact on condos and the East Bay.
Buyer’s Market or Seller’s Market?
For single-family homes, six of seven counties are still seller’s markets by months of supply; Santa Cruz is balanced. Condos and townhomes lean balanced to buyer-friendly in most of the region. Rule of thumb: under 3 months of supply favors sellers, 3–6 months is balanced, over 6 favors buyers.
| County | SFR months of supply | Median days on market | SFR median price | Single-family verdict | Condo/townhome verdict |
| San Francisco | 1.3 | 34 | $1,875,000 | Strong seller’s market | Seller’s market |
| Marin | 2.7 | 56 | $1,650,500 | Moderate seller’s market | Limited data |
| San Mateo | 1.7 | 11 | $2,250,000 | Strong seller’s market | Soft — buyer opportunity |
| Santa Clara | 2.1 | 12 | $1,900,000 | Seller’s market, cooling | Leaning buyer’s |
| Alameda | 2.3 | 14 | $1,285,000 | Seller’s market, cooling | Balanced to buyer-friendly |
| Contra Costa | 2.7 | 20 | $875,000 | Moderate seller’s, near balanced | Balanced |
| Santa Cruz | 4.6 | 15 | $1,370,000 | Balanced | Leaning buyer’s |
Source for months of supply, days on market and medians: C.A.R. August 2026 Home Sales and Price Report (single-family, existing homes; latest county detail reviewed). Condo verdicts reflect current inventory and local agent input.
Bottom line: an “accommodation” market. Sellers still hold the edge on desirable single-family homes, but buyers have leverage on condos and townhomes, homes that need work, overpriced listings and anything that has sat 30+ days.
Buy Now, Refinance Later: does it work?
It can, for buyers who can comfortably afford today’s payment — but the base-case forecasts do not call for much lower rates soon, so the purchase should make sense even if a refinance never happens.
The case for buying now: less competition and more negotiating room, especially on condos and townhomes. A price concession or seller credit won today is permanent; the rate can be changed later.
Refinance math on a $1,000,000 jumbo loan at 6.75% (principal and interest)
| If rates fall from 6.75% to… | New payment | Monthly savings | Months to recover ~$15,000 in costs |
| 6.25% | $6,157 | $329 | ~46 |
| 6.00% | $5,996 | $490 | ~31 |
Refinance costs vary; $15,000 (about 1.5% of the loan) is an illustration only.
The Risks…
• Fannie Mae and the MBA forecast roughly 6.7–6.8% through 2027, so a 6% refinance is not the base case (National Mortgage News).
• The Federal Reserve raised rates in September and signaled more hikes may come (Scotsman Guide).
• A refinance requires re-qualifying: income, credit and home value all need to hold up.
Tools that reduce the payment today
• Seller-paid rate buydowns. A temporary 2-1 buydown or a permanent buydown funded by seller credits — easiest to negotiate on condos, townhomes and longer-listed homes.
• Adjustable-rate mortgages. A 7/1 or 10/1 ARM can price below the 30-year fixed; ARMs have risen to about 8.5% of applications nationally (Karmactive, citing MBA).
• Shopping the loan. Jumbo pricing varies widely by lender; today it can beat the conforming average.
Opportunities Right Now…
The best openings this fall are for buyers of condos and townhomes, buyers with an agent who can find off-MLS homes, and sellers of well-priced single-family homes in the tightest counties.
For Buyers…
1. Look at condos and townhomes, which are soft in San Mateo, Santa Clara, the East Bay and Santa Cruz — a strong opening for first-time buyers and downsizers.
2. Work with a seasoned local agent. Many Peninsula and Santa Clara homes sell before they reach the MLS; experienced, well-connected agents can open doors buyers will not find online.
3. Ask for credits instead of only price. A seller-funded rate buydown can lower the payment more than an equal price cut.
4. Get fully pre-approved now, including jumbo pricing, so you can move quickly when the 10-year dips and rates improve.
5. Target listings that have sat 30+ days — those sellers are the most open to negotiation.
For Sellers…
1. Price to recent comps, not last spring’s. With rates above 7%, overpriced homes sit and then chase the market down.
2. San Francisco and San Mateo single-family sellers still have leverage — very low supply and strong demand.
3. Consider an off-market or pre-MLS sale through a well-connected agent, which can reach qualified buyers quickly and quietly.
4. Offer a rate buydown credit to widen your buyer pool, especially for condos and townhomes.
5. Present the home well. Condition and staging matter more when buyers have choices.
Every situation is different. Contact us for a personalized payment review, jumbo pre-approval, or an introduction to one of the local market experts below.
Local Market Experts…
| Name | Market | Phone | |
| Michelle Ye, The Agency | San Francisco and Marin | 415-312-6688 | michelle.ye@theagencyre.com |
| Kiersten Ligeti and Patricia Karoubi, The Agency (business partners) | San Mateo County (Peninsula) and Surrounding areas | Kiersten: 650-766-8319; Patricia: 650-868-4565 | kiersten@theagencyre.com; patricia@theagencyre.com |
| Dawn Thomas | Santa Clara County and Surrounding areas | 650-215-5990 | dawn@siliconvalleyandbeyond.com |
| Trang Dunlap | East Bay specialist (Alameda and Contra Costa) | 415-606-2967 | Trangsf@gmail.com |
| Robbie Matusich | Santa Cruz County and Bay Area; residential and commercial | 408-531-5542 | Robbierealtor@gmail.com |
Sources:
Current listing counts (local agents, October 2026 unless noted)…
• Kiersten Ligeti and Patricia Karoubi, The Agency — San Mateo counts.
• Dawn Thomas — Santa Clara County off-MLS observations.
• Trang Dunlap — Alameda and Contra Costa County counts.
• Robbie Matusich — Santa Cruz County counts.
• Redfin — San Francisco County homes for sale by property type (Oct 22, 2026) — https://www.redfin.com/county/340/CA/San-Francisco-County
• Redfin — Santa Clara County homes for sale by property type (Oct 22, 2026) — https://www.redfin.com/county/345/CA/Santa-Clara-County
• Redfin — Marin County homes for sale by property type (Oct 22, 2026) — https://www.redfin.com/county/323/CA/Marin-County
• Marin single-family MLS count: Imagine Marin — Marin Housing Market Q3 2026 (BAREIS MLS, data as of Oct 4, 2026) — https://imaginemarin.com/blog/marin-housing-market-q3-2026-the-dollar340000-gap-and-the-day-14-line
Inventory trend (Realtor.com Housing Inventory Core Metrics via FRED, St. Louis Fed)
• San Francisco County — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/ACTLISCOU6075
• Marin County — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/ACTLISCOU6041
• San Mateo County — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/ACTLISCOU6081
• Santa Clara County — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/ACTLISCOU6085
• Alameda County — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/ACTLISCOU6001
• Contra Costa County — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/ACTLISCOU6013
• Santa Cruz County — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/ACTLISCOU6087
Market Conditions
• California Association of REALTORS® — August 2026 Home Sales and Price Report — https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2026releases/august2026sales
AI and Technology
• Forge — Anthropic IPO news — https://forgeglobal.com/insights/anthropic-upcoming-ipo-news/
• Yahoo Finance — Anthropic reportedly looking to IPO as early as mid-November (Oct 1, 2026) — https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/article/anthropic-reportedly-looking-to-ipo-as-early-as-mid-november-180315768.html
• Yahoo Finance — OpenAI completes $7 billion employee tender offer (Aug 2026) — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/openai-completes-7-billion-employee-111836206.html
• NBC Bay Area / AP — AI boom heats up Bay Area housing market (Sept 2, 2026) — https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/ai-boom-bay-area-housing-market/4136651/
• The Motley Fool — Alphabet Q3 earnings expectations (Oct 19, 2026) — https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/19/alphabet-q3-earnings-expectations/
• Digital Applied — Alphabet Q2 2026: Search ads grew 17% (July 25, 2026) — https://www.digitalapplied.com/blog/alphabet-q2-2026-earnings-search-ads-ai-overviews
Rates, Treasury and Forecasts
• Freddie Mac PMMS — Mortgage Rates Decrease to 7.32% (Oct 22, 2026) — https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/22/3386709/0/en/mortgage-rates-decrease-to-7-32.html
• Freddie Mac PMMS — The 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Declines Further (Apr 23, 2026) — https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/04/23/3280237/0/en/the-30-year-fixed-rate-mortgage-declines-further.html
• Axios — Treasury bonds aren’t usually volatile. They are now (Oct 19, 2026) — https://www.axios.com/2026/10/19/treasury-yields-hedge-funds-volatility
• Forbes Advisor — Treasury Rates Today (Oct 21, 2026) — https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/treasury-rates/
• Advisor Perspectives — Treasury Yields Snapshot (Oct 9, 2026) — https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/10/09/treasury-yields-snapshot-october-9-2026
• National Mortgage News — Fannie, MBA Forecasts (Sept 21, 2026) — https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/fannie-mba-cut-2026-forecasts-plan-for-6-8-rates
• Scotsman Guide — MBA Lifts Mortgage Rate Outlook (Sept 21, 2026) — https://www.scotsmanguide.com/news/mba-lifts-mortgage-rate-outlook-as-fed-signals-hiking-cycle/
• Karmactive — Mortgage Rates Hit 6.95% (Sept 2026) — https://www.karmactive.com/mortgage-rates-6-95-september-2026-highest-since-january-freddie-mac/
Disclosures
This report is for general informational purposes only and is not a commitment to lend or an offer of credit. Rates, programs and market conditions change daily; payment examples show principal and interest only and exclude taxes, insurance and HOA dues. All loans are subject to credit approval and underwriting. Market data are compiled from third-party sources and local agents believed reliable but not guaranteed. Consult a tax or legal professional for advice specific to your situation. Rates and fees subject to change without notice or until locked in and approved by lender.
If you are in need of mortgage financing to buy, sell or refi a property, please contact me:
Rob McCarthy, Senior Mortgage Advisor · 101Loan · www.101Loan.com · 650-465-8957 · rob@101loan.com · NMLS #121019 · CA DRE #01165697 · Equal Housing Opportunity
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