Interesting Times in Real Estate…Part 1 (Housing Inventory)

2024 has been “interesting” to say the least in the world of real estate due to the following:

• Housing Inventory
• Interest Rates
• Recent Changes in Residential Real Estate – NAR Developments, Market Impact and Trends
• Changes in Commercial and Construction Financing

Over the next 4 weeks I’ll send an article on each topic (above) as it relates to Real Estate in the Residential and Commercial Space.  Please see below.

Housing Inventory and How its Affecting Buyers and Sellers

Before we get started, housing inventory, specifically residential housing, is defined as the total number of active listings plus pending sales in any given month and usually includes homes, town homes and condominiums.  To see this article in html, click here.

Factors that Influence Housing Inventory:

• Cost of Money (Interest Rates)
• Accessibility to Money (Lending)
• The Economy (Locally and Nationally)
• Consumer Confidence
• Infrastructure of the Area*
• The Stock Market
• Job Growth
• Inflation

*Infrastructure for these purposes is defined as the abundance or lack of land and buildable space, population in the area, number of large, mid and small cap sized companies local to one area, support services that include the number of schools (k-12), junior colleges, colleges and universities, hospitals, medical support, multiple sport teams, safety in an area, etc.  Example: Strong Areas typically include the Bay Area, LA, San Diego, Phoenix, Denver, Dallas, Miami, Boston, New York to name of few.

What’s a Perfect Real Estate Model?

One of the most perfect real estate models is considered the Bay Area.  This is due to its high infrastructure (see above for definition) compared to most areas in the country, but also has some of the most expensive real estate.  Where infrastructure is high and the above factors are positive, residential housing inventory is this area tends to be low just as its been since 2014 after the recovery from the 2008/2009 real estate crash that affected the country.

From 2014 and forward, inventory hasn’t gone back to “normal” levels, where there’s a balance of housing supply and consumer demand.  For the last decade (with the exception of 2023 when interest rates soared), residential housing inventory locally has been low and demand has been great exceeding supply.

Currently, inventory is as follows…

• Santa Clara County – There are 1213 listings (801 homes, 282 condos and 130 townhomes) and pending sales of 900 (603 in homes and 297 in condos and townhomes as provided by Jen Beehler with Elevate Group  650-714-8216
• San Mateo County – There are 579 listings (91 of which are off market and only available to Realtors) and pending sales of 332 (51 contingent, 287 pending) as provided by Kiersten Ligeti with the Agency  650-766-8319
• Santa Cruz County – There are 283 listings and 52 pending sales and 77 contingent as provided by Dawn Thomas & Chuck Holcomb at the The Dawn Thomas Team at  650-7010-7822

Important Note: Housing Inventory does fluctuate but historically over the last 10 years, supply has not kept up pace with demand causing overbidding on many homes sold with the exception was 2023 where residential real estate came to a stand still due to rising interest rates from January of 2023 at 3% to 7% (+or- .5%.)

The Bidding War…Recent Stories

As inventory remains low in the Bay Area, if a property comes on the market where 1 or more buyers like it, when they offer, a bidding war occurs especially when the listing agent accepts offers on a certain day and time.  Result, this is pushing values higher.  See some recent stories that I personally experienced…

Story 1…Last month we had a client that bid on a property where there were 11 offers on a property listed for $1.595m.  Our bid was the winner at 1.8m due to a short closing and no contingencies.  We were worried that the appraised value would come in low but low and behold the appraised value came in and we closed with no issue.  This then becomes the new comp/closing for the area pushing values higher.

Story 2…Dawn Thomas (that provided info for Santa Cruz County) has a client that presented an offer at $2.1m bringing in a significant down payment and the home sold at $2.8m with the client knowing full well they may need to make of the difference if the appraised value comes in short (while we are waiting for the appraisal).  What’s crazy, with all this over bidding, when the property closes, that property becomes the new comp for their neighborhood pushing prices up further.  Just look at the recent Housing Price Index for San Jose, Sunnyvale and Santa Clara as it correlates to supply and demand of the local real estate market and the increase of home prices over time.

Summary

Low Housing Inventory with High Demand equals Overbidding and Higher Values in the Near Future.  If you’re a seller trading up or trading down or selling for profit, you can still sell for top dollar.  If you’re a buyer, if you buy now, your locking in the price as its expected to go higher due to housing inventory and lower rates as expected by the Fed Reserve in q3 and q4 of this year.  Next week, I will cover Interest rates and how they correlate with Real Estate and the over all economy and of course consumer confidence which also drives real estate prices up.

If you have any questions and would like to get preapproved or determine your purchase power or financing options, please contact me.  Thanks.

Best Regards,

101 Loan
Senior Mortgage Advisor
www.101Loan.com
650-465-8957 c 408-377-4123 o
CA DRE #01205444 NMLS #326829
101 Loan – 14435 C Big Basin Way, Saratoga, CA 95070

Products/Services/Accolades:

1. Residential Financing for Purchases and Refinances on 1 to 4 unit properties.
2. Reverse Mortgage Financing to include Conforming, Jumbo, HELOC Jumbo’s.
3. Commercial & SBA Financing to include Multifamily, Office, Retail and Light Industrial.
4. Access to over 60 banks with over 300 “Five Star” Reviews on Yelp, Google and Linkedin.
5. Over 30 years of lending experience with over$2b in closed loan volume.

Note: Interest rates and loan programs quoted are subject to change without notice or until locked and approved by lender.